In four, eight or fifty years, historians will largely focus on the economic stimulus package when judging the first weeks of Mr. Obama's presidency. While the final verdict on the success of the package itself will remain unclear for sometime, barring an unforeseen snafu, Mr. Obama has passed this first test both politically and policy-wise with high marks.
Mr. Obama has been successful in three major ways:
- The bill is largely as he crafted it, both in his proposals to Congress and in the promises of his campaign.
- An overwhelming majority of Americans view his handling of the package positively. Conversely, they do not approve of the Republican's opposition of the package.
- Mr. Obama's approval rating remains at a very high level, leaving him with the political capital to tackle the future challenges of another financial bailout, health care and entitlement reforms.
- A middle class tax cut for 95% of working families
- Spending to improve infrastructure, education, health care and energy
- Helping state governments with budget issues
- Supplementing unemployment benefits
- Business investment incentives
Addressing point two, the latest polls see Mr. Obama's handling of the Economic Stimulus debate positively. In the latest CNN poll*, 74 percent of Americans say Mr. Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans, while only 39 percent say the same for Republicans. While House Republicans argue that Mr. Obama has failed because the overall package is not viewed in an overwhelmingly positive light, only 54% of Americans supported it in the CNN poll, this metric is rather irrelevant at this point, as citizens will view the bill in the future based on whether it does or does not improve their economic situations. Of course, if two years from now, the economy has not recovered, or the money has been spent unwisely on poor investments, Mr. Obama will suffer. But at least for today, the American people give Mr. Obama high marks for his handling of the stimulus debate.
Finally, on point three, Mr. Obama's overall approval rating remains at a robust 65.4 percent in the Real Clear Politics average. While down slightly from the highs around the inauguration, these remain sky-high, particularly when compared to the Republicans in Congress or even to his Democratic Congressional allies. Mr. Obama has successfully retained his political capital, leaving him in a good position to lead government action in the near future on other important issues.
President Barack Obama has not been perfect in these first few weeks, with significant slip-ups clouding his message and frequently costing him the daily news cycle. Nonetheless, he will pass an economic stimulus package that reflects his policy beliefs, and will emerge politically very strong from the debate. While Mr. Obama may look back at the Economic Stimulus package as a failure after his presidency, it will be because the policies did not work, as his handling of the measure has been remarkable for such a new president.
*Have selected only one poll, but other polls have similar figures and do not counter the overall argument